"Without it, returns can plateau while risk quietly compounds,” they warn, adding that monthly or weekly rebalancing strikes the best compromise between upside capture and volatility control, particularly "during periods of broader market stress, as we’ve recently seen.” Three Scenarios For Dogecoin To frame expectations for the coming cycle, 21Shares sets out three scenarios: In the bear case, Dogecoin’s post-election rally is described as potentially having "front-run its true cycle potential.” If the token merely compounds at 10 % per year from its 2021 peak of $0.73, it would "land around $0.38 by 2025,” a doubling from today’s $0.18 but, for the first time, a failure to record a new all-time high within a full market cycle.
In that environment, the authors write, a full-throated return of retail exuberance "could re-establish DOGE as the breakout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.” 21Shares finishes on a pragmatic note: "With the right structure, a 1 % allocation to Dogecoin isn’t reckless—it’s rewarding.” At press time, DOGE traded at $0.175.
Related Reading: Dogecoin Could Rally To $0.74 ATH If Price Closes Month Above This Level, Analyst Says The neutral case assumes the total crypto-asset market capitalizes at $5 trillion and DOGE’s market share slips from 4 % to 3 %.
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